Daniel Rochlitz
Today’s trading once again confirmed that the key to outperformance is not the direction of the indices, but the selection of the right sectors and individual stocks. My portfolio is currently up approximately +1.35%, outperforming the major indices. Markets did not move in one direction today. Europe continued to rise, with the STOXX 600 reaching a new all-time high, while U.S. indices mostly traded sideways, waiting for new macro data from the labor market and inflation. In Europe, banks, the defense sector, and technology stocks led the gains. The Sentix investor confidence index also improved, returning to positive territory. This is an important signal that the market is gradually repricing recession risks in the eurozone and that capital is flowing back into cyclical stocks. The U.S. market was mostly flat today, mainly due to rising bond yields and the wait for key macroeconomic data. However, the earnings season remains strong—approximately 80% of S&P 500 companies are beating expectations, with year-over-year earnings growth around 13–14%. This confirms that the current bull trend is supported by a real earnings cycle. From a portfolio perspective, the sector allocation continues to prove correct. Capital is moving into areas with a long-term investment cycle and strong growth visibility. To illustrate the diversification, here are five positions from my portfolio: $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) A key provider of computing power for AI. The company dominates the data-center accelerator segment and has significant pricing power. Gross margins remain at extremely high levels, and demand for AI infrastructure continues to exceed supply. $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - ADR) The most important advanced-chip foundry. The majority of AI and high-performance processors are manufactured here. Growth in the HPC and AI segments directly increases capacity utilization and supports higher average selling prices. $ASML.NV (ASML Holding NV) A strategic monopoly in EUV lithography. Without its technology, the most advanced chips cannot be produced. The order book remains strong, and the company is directly tied to the long-term investment cycle in semiconductors. $GEV (GE Vernova LLC) Energy infrastructure is the bottleneck of the entire AI boom. Data centers are increasing electricity consumption, creating a strong investment cycle in the energy sector. GE Vernova is one of the key players in power generation and grid modernization. $RHM.DE (Rheinmetall AG) The European defense sector has entered a multi-year growth cycle. Rising military budgets and ammunition replenishment create strong revenue and earnings visibility for several years ahead. Core portfolio structure: • AI and semiconductors as the primary growth engine • Energy infrastructure as a secondary investment cycle • Defense sector with long-term order visibility • Complemented by banks, dividend, and commodity stocks From a macro perspective, the situation remains stable. Economic data do not indicate a sharp slowdown, the earnings cycle continues, and capital is moving into companies with real cash-flow growth. The coming days will be crucial in terms of U.S. inflation and labor-market data, which will influence expectations regarding the Fed’s next steps. Short-term volatility is normal in this environment, but the core investment thesis remains unchanged.
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