๐๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ
March turned into a difficult month for global equities, with the Iran war driving a sharp repricing across assets. Oil moved higher, inflation expectations followed, and equities sold off as rate cut expectations were pushed out.
For my portfolio, this has been a disastrous month and the first that clearly broke the winning streak, bringing year to date performance back to roughly 0 to minus 5%.
๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ ๐
Energy has been the main driver. Rising oil prices are feeding directly into inflation concerns and forcing a reset in rate expectations.
Equities have reacted accordingly, with growth assets hit the hardest as yields moved higher.
Interestingly, this has not been a clean risk off move. Safe havens have been less supportive, suggesting this is more about inflation repricing than pure fear.
Some large institutions are now flagging stagflation risks if the conflict persists, while others see markets as technically stretched to the downside.
๐๐ฒ ๐๐ข๐๐ฐ
My view, and it is debatable, is that equities are currently trading oil more than fundamentals.
As long as energy remains elevated, the backdrop for equities stays challenging. At the same time, the speed of the move suggests positioning is much lighter, which could support sharp rebounds on any de-escalation.
๐๐จ๐จ๐ค๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐๐๐
The path of oil and the direction of the conflict remain key.
Any signs of stabilization could trigger a relief rally, while further escalation would likely keep pressure on equities.
$SPX500$NSDQ100$DJ30 $VIX
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Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Complimenti per il portafoglio
Vedo che anche tu usi molto gli ETF... Show More Translate
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