Thomas Roddy @ThomasRoddy: "📣 Portfolio Update — End..."

France

📣 Portfolio Update — End of Month Hello all and happy Halloween Here is q quick overview of the portfolio over the past month 🔍 New Investments Spotlight Since our last update we’ve added a number of names aligned with our low-beta, value-tilt, momentum-aware strategy. A few highlights: We increased exposure to several insurance and financial stocks that trade at attractive valuations and exhibit lower market beta (anchor positions to help dampen volatility). We added select momentum plays in niche sectors where value appears under-appreciated, but price trends are improving, meaning we’re not just buying cheap, we’re buying cheap and trending. We trimmed or exited positions that no longer cleared our dual test of value + momentum (or where beta risk was creeping). That capital has been reallocated into names with cleaner risk profiles and stronger factor alignment. This shift did not change our strategy, it refined it: lower overall beta, stronger value orientation, and enhanced momentum overlay. In practice this means the “new book” is leaner, more consistent with our stated objectives, and better positioned for controlled upside. 🌐 Macro Backdrop The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that global markets face an increased risk of a “disorderly” correction, citing elevated valuations, trade tensions, and large deficits. For us, that reinforces the value of our low-beta posture: when markets correct, our emphasis on steadier names should provide a buffer. The global economy is slowing: growth is projected to drop from ~3.3 % in 2024 to ~3.2 % in 2025 and ~3.1 % in 2026. In such an environment, value stocks and companies with cash-flow-based valuations often outperform speculative high-growth names — exactly the space we favour. Meanwhile, China’s economy is under stress with its manufacturing sector contracting for six consecutive months (PMI remained below 50 in September). On the flip side, China remains committed to AI and high-tech development: exports of integrated circuits rose to 5.2 % of total exports by Jan-Sep 2025, up 0.7 pp from end-2024. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have shown signs of easing, with reports of a framework deal and pause on tariffs. For our strategy this is beneficial: risk of trade escalation has been a key “factor-tilt risk” for non-U.S. holdings and our credit/financial exposures. A calmer trade backdrop tightens the risk premium and supports our repositioning. 📊 What This Means for the Portfolio Beta control strengthening: With the new additions emphasizing lower-beta financials and value names, our portfolio is better insulated from a broad market draw-down. The macro warnings from the IMF suggest our defensive tilt is prudent. Value-tilt beneficial: In a slowing growth world, the value orientation of the new names (i.e., undervalued stocks with earnings power) should work in our favour. The structural trend in China’s AI agenda further reinforces that undervalued names linked to infrastructure/finance may outperform. Momentum overlay adds upside: While macro growth is sluggish, pockets of strength (like AI and tech infrastructure) are gaining investor attention. By including names tied to these trends, we retain upside without abandoning our low-beta constraint. Risk-adjusted upside improved: The environment of modest global growth + elevated valuations means markets may only deliver moderate returns in the near term. In that context, a strategy that emphasizes quality, value, and controlled beta offers better odds of alpha, especially if we avoid a major draw-down. 🚧 Things to Monitor Because growth is decelerating and risks are elevated (trade, geo-politics, valuation), we should watch for signs of momentum fading in any of our newer positions. If momentum weakens or valuations get ahead of fundamentals, we’ll be ready to rotate. Even though our beta is lower, low-beta stocks are not immune to systemic shocks. A sharp risk-off event (e.g., geo-political escalation or global recession) could still hit many defensives. That’s why we keep portfolio discipline and liquidity management active. China’s transition to AI/infrastructure is structural but not friction-free. Regulatory shifts or policy mis-steps could disrupt segments of our exposure. We must keep tracking company-specific fundamentals, not just theme momentum. Finally, while the trade tensions backdrop has improved, the macro growth picture is still weak. Our value-tilt expects earnings recovery or valuation re-rating, so stagnation in earnings could delay alpha. Patience remains important. Thank you for your trust and for following the process. I’m confident the portfolio’s repositioning, focusing on low-beta, value-oriented, momentum-aware stocks, is the right path in this environment. If you have any questions or would like to dive deeper into any, feel free to reach out! $SPX500 $NSDQ100

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

2 Mentioned

SPX500

SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)

NSDQ100

NASDAQ100 Index (Non Expiry)

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