Veronika Tykhonova @Wise_woman: "𝗠𝗮𝘆: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗡𝗼𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗪𝗮𝗻𝘁𝘀..."

United Arab Emirates

𝗠𝗮𝘆: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗡𝗼𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗪𝗮𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽 S&P 500 closed at record highs 11 times last month. Half of all trading days. Semiconductors are up 81% this year. Some AI-linked names up 200%+ Wall Street is openly divided on what this means. Big banks raised their targets — earnings came in strong, AI investment is real, profit growth is holding. The bull case has substance and serious people are making it. But equally serious voices are calling this a “crazy, crazy time.” Valuations at 21x forward earnings, well above long-term averages. The dot-com comparisons are coming from people who were actually there in 1999. Both sides make sense. That’s the uncomfortable part. Momentum is clearly winning, but momentum and fundamentals have been drifting apart long enough that it’s hard to ignore. Rate cuts are off the table. Inflation expectations creeping back. The market is pricing a future that hasn’t arrived yet. 𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 & 𝙎𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙜𝙮 I remain cautious not because the bull case is wrong, but because at these valuations the margin for error is thin. Portfolio was flat at -0.4% for the month as a result, but staying disciplined right now is a deliberate choice. The market moves in cycles, and there will be plenty of high-conviction entries to catch up when the risk-reward aligns. Main adjustment was adding UAE names — energy and local financials ($FAB.DH, $ADNOCLS.DH (ADNOC Logistics & Services), $ADNOCDRI.DH (ADNOC Drilling Company PJSC), $ADNOCGAS.DH (ADNOC Gas PLC)). A regional structural thesis that doesn’t depend on the AI story. Everything else held. Bond sleeve quiet and productive. Intel ($INTC) keeps running. $SQQQ (ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ) still underwater — still intentional. Capital protection isn’t always pretty in a rally. Going into June I’ll be watching the winners closely. If the trend holds and numbers justify it, I’ll start adding cautiously to what’s working. June will clarify some of this. It usually does.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.