๐บ๐ธ U.S. Macroeconomy: Flying Blind in a Data Blackout
The U.S. economy has entered an unusual moment:
Government shutdown โ critical data (like the jobs report) is on hold. Markets and the Fed are now navigating with limited visibility.
Labor market signals: Private data (ADP) points to job losses in September (โ โ32K), raising questions about a cooling employment trend.
Fed policy: Officials warn against cutting rates too early, but markets bet on 2025 rate cuts if weakness deepens.
Growth risks: Each week of shutdown could shave ~0.1โ0.2 pp from GDP; extended disruption could cost $15 B/week.
Consumer confidence is slipping โ a warning sign for spending, the key growth driver.
๐ก Investor takeaway:
Markets are caught between weakening labor momentum and uncertain inflation trends. If the shutdown persists, volatility may rise as economic clarity fades. Watch Treasuries, USD, and equity risk appetite โ theyโll reflect shifting expectations on growth and Fed cuts.... Show More
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Wed Feb 18 2026 08:33:33 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
