Stefano Ceragioli
πŸ“Š Monthly Update πŸ“‰ After the recent strong rally, Bitcoin has now entered a consolidation phase. The medium-term structure remains bullish, supported by the post-halving cycle, institutional inflows, and increasing regulatory clarity. However, the market doesn’t seem ready yet to break through key resistance levels with conviction. πŸ”„ As you may have noticed, I entered around 112k, expecting a breakout toward new highs. For now, the price is showing signs of weakness: in the short term, a technical retracement is likely, with the possibility of testing levels below 109k, before any stronger recovery. This would be a natural and healthy move to cool off the excesses built up over the past weeks. πŸ“ˆ From a cyclical and macro perspective, indicators such as the Pi Cycle do not yet point to a definitive top, leaving open the possibility of further highs later in the cycle. The main scenarios remain: a base case with gradual continuation toward new highs; a bull case driven by strong institutional demand; and an extreme case, with sharp accelerations followed by wider corrections. Meanwhile, any pullback could represent a disciplined accumulation opportunity. 🟣 Altcoins: ETH and SOL continue to show relative strength, but I’m considering partial exits if prices extend too quickly. Their performance remains tied to BTC’s direction: any retracements will inevitably affect the major alts as well. 🎯 Targets (personal view) $BTC β†’ 150k $ETH β†’ 8k $SOL β†’ $400 ⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always make your own decisions, use Stop Losses correctly, and manage exposure carefully. The market remains attractive, but we’re in the late stages of the cycle: caution is essential. This phase will also be crucial for positioning ahead of the next bear market.
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