๐ฟ๐๐๐ง ๐พ๐ค๐ฅ๐๐๐ง ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐ค๐ก๐ก๐ค๐ฌ๐๐ง, ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐๐ก๐๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฎ ๐๐จ๐๐๐ก๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฃ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐ฉ๐๐ฉ๐๐จ, ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ก ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ฃ ๐ข๐๐ง๐ ๐จ ๐ ๐๐๐ค๐ฅ๐ค๐ก๐๐ฉ๐๐๐๐ก ๐ฉ๐ช๐ง๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฅ๐ค๐๐ฃ๐ฉ ๐ฌ๐๐ฉ๐ ๐๐ข๐ข๐๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ก๐๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐จ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐๐ก๐ค๐๐๐ก ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ก ๐ข๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฉ๐จ.
Operation โLionโs Roarโ reportedly involved coordinated US-Israeli raids on Iranian military and nuclear targets in Tehran, Qom and Isfahan. According to President Donald Trump, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed โ news that, if confirmed, would represent a historic shift in the regional balance of power.
Iranโs response, under the operation โTruth Promise 4,โ reportedly included missile strikes on Tel Aviv and US bases in the Gulf. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz โ a strategic chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes โ could become the true systemic shock for markets.
Dubai was also reportedly hit: missiles and drones allegedly struck Palm Jumeirah (with a fire at the Fairmont The Palm), as well as the port and airport, significantly increasing perceived risk across the Gulf region.
๐ ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ก ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฉ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐๐๐ฉ๐จ
๐ข ๐๐๐ก & ๐๐๐จ
During Fridayโs session, oil had already begun to move higher, surpassing $67 per barrel. Scenarios now point toward potential prices of $90โ100 in the event of a prolonged crisis or attacks on Gulf infrastructure.
โข Risk of imported inflation in Europe
โข Pressure on central banks (including the Fed)
โข Increased global recession risk
โข Possible OPEC+ intervention to stabilize supply
Natural gas could follow oilโs trajectory, with potential price spikes linked to Iranian export disruptions (3.3 million barrels per day potentially at risk).
๐ต ๐๐ ๐ฟ๐ค๐ก๐ก๐๐ง
The dollar could strengthen as a safe-haven currency:
โข Possible delay of Fed rate cuts due to inflation concerns
โข Pressure on emerging market
In the case of prolonged escalation, the greenback could continue benefiting from defensive flows.
๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐๐๐๐ค๐ช๐จ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ก๐จ
Gold, sharply higher as a safe-haven asset, could easily surpass historical highs:
โข Hedge against geopolitical risk
โข Protection from potential energy-driven inflation
โข Increased central bank purchases
Silver and platinum are following the same safe-haven dynamic.
๐ฉ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ง๐๐๐ก ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ก๐จ
Copper and aluminum are showing volatility:
โข Supply chain concerns (Iran is a relevant copper exporter)
โข Downward pressure in case of global economic slowdown
A prolonged energy shock could depress global industrial demand.
๐ฏ Strategic Conclusion
An energy shock and geopolitical risk are likely to drive markets in the short term.
If the closure of the Strait of Hormuz were to persist:
โข Energy (up)
โข Inflation (up)
โข Growth (down)
โข Volatility (up)
Investors are rotating toward:
โข US Dollar
โข Gold
โข Energy sector
The next 48โ72 hours will be crucial in determining whether the situation escalates into a broader regional conflict or moves toward diplomatic de-escalation.
In this context, risk management and diversification once again become central to portfolio strategy.
Thank you for your support and take care!
$OIL$NATGAS$COPPER.FUT$URA (Global X Uranium ETF)... Show More
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