Rudolf De Leeuw @RudolfDeLeeuw: "📈 From Year-End to New..."

Netherlands

📈 From Year-End to New Year | Data and Sentiment Set the Initial Tone Last week was calm and largely played out as expected. Thin liquidity, limited macro catalysts and subdued volatility defined trading into year-end. That environment sets the stage for the upcoming week, as markets gradually shift from year-end positioning toward the first signals for early 2026 📊🎆. The coming week is another shortened trading week. US equity markets will be closed on Thursday, January 1, which means liquidity is likely to remain thin and price reactions can be amplified. In this setting, even a small number of data points can carry more weight than usual. A key focus remains the labor market. On Thursday, January 2, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released. While these figures are rarely decisive on their own, at the turn of the year investors pay closer attention to whether the picture of gradual cooling remains intact. As long as claims stay contained, this continues to support the soft-landing narrative markets have been pricing in. On Friday, January 3, attention shifts to the ISM Manufacturing Index. As one of the first macro indicators of the new year, it provides insight into how US manufacturing enters 2026. Markets will focus less on the absolute level and more on direction. Stabilization or modest improvement would support sentiment, while renewed weakness could quickly reintroduce growth concerns for the year ahead. From a central bank perspective, there are no policy decisions scheduled. Still, markets remain sensitive to moves in rates and yields, particularly as investors rebalance portfolios at the start of a new calendar year. Any Fed commentary can therefore have an outsized impact despite a relatively quiet macro calendar. This all follows a week where markets behaved largely in line with expectations. During the week of December 22, the S&P 500 advanced roughly +0.6%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained around +0.9%, supported by stable yields and selective strength in large-cap technology. The modest gains reflect a market that remains constructive, but cautious, heading into year-end. On the corporate side, the earnings calendar remains light. That said, individual updates, outlook adjustments or profit warnings can still trigger stock-specific moves. In thin markets, these effects tend to be magnified. Overall, the coming week is about positioning and early confirmation. Confirmation that the labor market remains stable, manufacturing does not deteriorate further and the rate backdrop stays calm. With limited trading hours and a new year about to begin, sentiment can shift quickly even without major headlines. My approach remains unchanged: stay disciplined 💪, focus on the bigger picture and avoid overreacting to the first data points of the new year. If you agree with this view or found this update valuable, a like is very much appreciated 👍. It helps this update reach other interested investors and keeps me motivated to keep investing time and effort into these posts. $DJ30 $NSDQ100 $SPX500 $RTY $BTC

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