Neza Molk
๐Ÿ“Š ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜„: ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฒ, ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐Ÿ”„ Global markets went through a volatile week, but the key story was still rotation, not panic. Investors moved capital out of growth, software, and AI-heavy stocks and into value, industrials, financials, and small caps. At the same time, new data showed the U.S. labor market is cooling, adding pressure to riskier parts of the market. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐—จ.๐—ฆ. U.S. equity markets finished the week mixed. Large-cap technology stocks had their worst week since November, while value-oriented and small-cap stocks extended their gains. The Nasdaq Composite fell around 1.8%, driven by weakness in software and AI names. The S&P 500 ended roughly flat. In contrast, the Dow Jones, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all posted solid gains. The Dow Jones index reached 50,000 for the first time in history. The rotation was clear. Value stocks outperformed growth by more than 4 percentage points, one of the largest gaps in years. Investors favored companies with steadier cash flows and lower valuations, while high-multiple tech stocks stayed under pressure. Labor market data reinforced this shift. ADP reported only 22,000 new private jobs in January. Job openings fell to their lowest level since 2020, jobless claims rose, and announced layoffs hit their highest January level since 2009. Even though the official jobs report was delayed, alternative data consistently pointed to cooling employment conditions. Bond yields moved slightly lower during the week, reflecting rising expectations that rate cuts could come later this year. ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ ๐—˜๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ European markets outperformed the U.S. The STOXX Europe 600 gained around 1% and reached new highs, supported by easing inflation and stable economic data. The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged and expressed confidence that inflation is moving toward its 2% target. Core inflation continued to slow, strengthening expectations that the next policy move will eventually be a cut. In the UK, the Bank of England also held rates steady, but a divided vote increased market expectations for a possible rate cut as early as March. ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต ๐—๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ป Japanese equities had a strong week. The Nikkei 225 rose around 1.8%, while the TOPIX gained more than 3.5%, supported by optimism ahead of the February 8 election. The yen weakened toward 157 per dollar, as investors expected continued fiscal support. At the same time, Japanese government bond yields climbed to their highest levels in decades, reflecting concerns about public debt and long-term fiscal sustainability. ๐Ÿข ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐˜€ ๐—”๐—น๐—ฝ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐˜ Beat earnings expectations, but investors focused on guidance for up to $185 billion in capital spending, raising concerns about whether AI investment will generate sufficient returns. ๐—”๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜‡๐—ผ๐—ป AWS growth met expectations, but guidance for roughly $200 billion in AI-related capex worried investors and pushed the stock lower. ๐—”๐—ฑ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐— ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฟ๐—ผ ๐——๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐˜€ Beat revenue estimates but disappointed on costs and margins, triggering a sharp selloff and highlighting how unforgiving the AI trade has become. ๐—ฃ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฟ Delivered strong growth and raised guidance, yet failed to hold gains as investors continued rotating away from AI-exposed stocks. ๐—ก๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฎ Shares were volatile as investors reassessed AI infrastructure demand and regulatory risk tied to chip exports. ๐—ค๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ Fell after weak guidance, citing memory shortages as AI data centers absorb supply originally meant for smartphones. ๐—ฆ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ Dropped to its lowest level since 2023 as concerns grew that AI tools could pressure traditional software pricing power. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ผ๐—บ๐˜€๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ Sold off sharply after new AI legal tools raised fears that data and research services face long-term disruption. ๐—›๐—ถ๐—บ๐˜€ & ๐—›๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ Shares moved after launching a low-cost weight-loss pill, intensifying competition in the obesity drug market. ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐˜€ Posted a record single-day drop after announcing cost cuts and a rethink of its electric vehicle strategy. ๐Ÿ‘€ ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐Ÿ“„ ๐—จ.๐—ฆ. ๐—๐—ผ๐—ฏ๐˜€ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ After weak alternative data, this report could strongly influence rate expectations. Reporting earnings this week: Coca-Cola, Shopify, Coinbase, Cisco, Robinhood, Datadog, McDonald's, Moderna, Lyft, and Spotify. ๐Ÿ” ๐—ฅ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐˜‚๐—บ Watch whether capital continues flowing into value and industrials or rotates back toward growth. ๐Ÿค– ๐—”๐—œ ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐——๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ Markets remain focused on whether massive AI investments can deliver acceptable returns. Trade safe! ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐˜‡๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ป $NSDQ100 $SPX500 $GOOG (Alphabet) $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc.)
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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