Peter Ahl @Wealthbystrategy: "💲YTD 11.4% (by Friday July..."

Sweden

💲YTD 11.4% (by Friday July 3) This week’s report looks a little different, and next week’s may as well, but after that I expect to return to the usual format. June ended on a strong note, with the portfolio reaching a new All Time High and a YTD return of +13.2% at the end of the month. I am particularly pleased with this progress after a period that has included considerable market volatility, rapid sector rotations and several challenging periods for investors. My June Monthly Report will be posted here separately at a later stage. 🌍 Overall Market Outlook Markets enter the new week with a constructive but increasingly selective tone. The combination of easing labour-market pressure and strong expected earnings growth remains supportive, while the sharp swings in semiconductor shares show that investors are becoming less willing to accept high valuations without equally strong forward expectations. The broader picture still favours patience over aggressive short-term positioning. Growth remains positive, the labour market is cooling rather than collapsing, and weaker oil prices compared with the recent conflict-driven spike have reduced some inflation pressure. At the same time, geopolitical risks and uncertainty over the Fed’s next move remain important sources of volatility. 📈 Past Week’s Market Activity U.S. equities ended the holiday-shortened week higher. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow all gained, while the Russell 2000 declined. Monday began strongly as easing U.S.-Iran tensions and renewed demand for technology shares lifted markets. The main macro event was the June employment report, released on Thursday because U.S. markets were closed on July 3. Payrolls rose by only 57,000, below expectations, while unemployment edged down to 4.2%. The softer hiring data reduced expectations for an imminent Fed rate increase. Beneath the index level, market leadership shifted sharply. The Dow reached a record close on Thursday, while the Nasdaq fell as semiconductor shares sold off heavily. This divergence is a good reminder that a strong index environment can still contain major rotations between sectors. 💼 Portfolio Activity Last week I made no changes to the portfolio. At present, I am working on refining some details of my investment process. There are periods when it is difficult to find enough high-quality companies, or suitable ETFs, that meet my demanding criteria. During such periods, a cash position naturally develops and can vary considerably in size. In short, I am exploring ways to use part of this cash more efficiently during certain periods, with the aim of generating additional returns alongside the long-term GARP strategy that will remain the portfolio’s main value driver. The objective isn’t to change the investment philosophy, but to improve how unused capital is handled when attractive long-term opportunities are scarce. 🔭 The Week Ahead This week started positively on Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.7% and the Nasdaq 1.1% as semiconductor shares rebounded. On Tuesday, however, global technology shares weakened again despite $SMSN.L (Samsung Electronics Co Ltd - GDR) reporting record quarterly profit, while oil prices rose as renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz returned to focus. The main macro event is Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting. Investors will look for clues about how policymakers balance slower job creation against inflation risks. The earnings calendar is still relatively light, but $PEP (PepsiCo) and $DAL (Delta Air Lines Inc (DE)) will provide useful signals about consumer demand and travel. $SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp) also joins the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, an unusually rapid index inclusion after its June IPO and an event expected to generate significant passive buying. Wishing you a prosperous trading week ahead! 👍

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.