Greenbull Investments Sarl
Greenbull Investments Sarl
Switzerland
1mo
A common question in the comments, and it's a fair one, is : "Why don't you just track the S&P? it's up +8% this year, and you're not." So why don't we just buy the index? Because you don't need us for that. An S&P ETF costs a few basis points in fees and does the job perfectly. VOO is literally the biggest ETF line in this portfolio. Copying someone to get index performance doesn't really make sense . What you're copying here is a scenario, and it's one we've been writing about publicly since June. CPI printed 4.2%, the hottest in three years. Oil touched $100 three weeks ago. The Fed chair is on record with "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation", and hike odds went from 11% to 38% in two weeks. Meanwhile the index's +16% is increasingly one trade: AI capex and chips. Four companies are underwriting $725bn of capex this year, Alphabet just reported an excellent quarter and lost 7% for the crime of spending, and chips just had their worst week in years. Under a calm index, money is rotating out of semis into banks and industrials. We wrote about that dispersion three weeks before it hit the tape. That's why the book looks the way it does: silver, energy, fertilizers, defense, European banks, Greece, the Gulf, Japan, a US quality sleeve, and not a single direct semiconductor line. It's the other side of the rotation. this positioning has a price, and you can see it on every line. When the war pauses and oil drops 13% in three days, our insurance bleeds while the index climbs. We pay that premium on purpose. Insurance always looks expensive until the day it doesn't. An index doesn't have a scenario. A portfolio does. Ours is public, line by line, and it's built to be a year early rather than a week late. If the market proves us wrong, you'll read it here first. We're not building a day trading portfolio, we're building a long term portfolio based on a future scenario. You are allowed to dissagree with our thesis and that's why there are hundreds of different portfolios to copy all over eToro. But also be realistic, and look around you. If you can't see the AI trade losing steam, your money being worth less and less, economic conditions degrading slowly, then by all means invest your capital on the other side of the trade.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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