Steven Budgen @Bees84: "𝗦𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗙𝗜𝗡𝗔𝗟 𝗘𝗫𝗣𝗟𝗢𝗦𝗜𝗩𝗘..."

Singapore

𝗦𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗙𝗜𝗡𝗔𝗟 𝗘𝗫𝗣𝗟𝗢𝗦𝗜𝗩𝗘 𝗠𝗢𝗩𝗘 𝗨𝗣 𝗜𝗡 𝗖𝗥𝗬𝗣𝗧𝗢 Having been in the Crypto space for a long time, I have seen this kind of market setup before. It always starts the same way. A long stretch of doubt, frustration & fear eventually gives way to a sudden burst of optimism that seems to come out of nowhere. People begin to convince themselves that maybe this time the cycle will break its own rules. It never does. Markets love one last dramatic rally, a final burst of excitement that pulls everyone back in just before a period of dampening enthusiasm. You can find the same pattern throughout every crypto bull market in or in other industries with parabolic market tops. Each crypto cycle usually ends with a final, frantic rush higher before the euthoric stage. Crypto is no exception and every cycle has followed this familiar pattern. It doesnt mean that this technology isnt ground breaking because I personally feel blockchain technology will be one of the biggest game changers in the next decade and $BTC will be the store of value of the future. But... What is happening today in both crypto & the wider market carries all the classic signs of a late stage melt up. Macro conditions are lining up so well timed that it almost looks scripted. We may be approaching the last powerful surge of this cycle, the kind that leaves even the most bullish investors shocked by how fast prices move. It feels strange to say that after months of bearish sentiment, but that is exactly why a vertical rally becomes possible. Markets rarely deliver what the crowd expects. When has the Crypto market ever gone out with a wimper? Before any altcoins have really taken off? It doesn't happen because the retail investor needs to make its way up the risk curve before euthoria gives way for caution. Several forces are now working together to create an environment that often precedes a parabolic move. Liquidity is the most obvious one. After a long period of tightening, we're beginning to see clear signs of easing again. The possibility of fresh liquidity flowing into the system from the Treasury &a more dovish attitude from the Fed provides the spark that risk assets thrive on. Crypto in particular is extremely sensitive to liquidity & tends to react with violent upside when conditions shift in its favour. Confidence in crypto has been worn down to its lowest point in a while with bitcoin being roughly flat for the year against equities which have provided larger gains. Many participants have either abandoned the space entirely or have become numb to price movements. That is historically the moment when markets become most explosive. When everyone who wanted to sell has already left, it takes only a small surge in demand to drive prices sharply higher. Even the fear & greed index are deep in extreme fear territory, a level that has often been followed by strong rebounds. There are also several unexpected catalysts developing at the same time. Government funding resolutions after the government shutdown, shifts in policy expectations and a potential easing stance at the Federal Reserve are all helping to soften the macro outlook. We will also potentially see lower interest rates going into next year. Crypto itself has a number of significant upgrades and institutional drivers approaching, from the introduction of new ETF products to major network improvements. The fact that these arrive at a moment of widespread pessimism only increases the probability of an outsized upside move, especially as governments around the world are embracing Crypto (Especially US). When you put all of this together you get the type of environment that typically produces a rapid and emotional surge in prices. Liquidity is improving, sentiment is exhausted, technicals are stabilising and macro conditions are turning just enough to catch people off guard. It is the classic recipe for a sharp and dramatic melt up. I believe this will be the final major rally of the cycle in Crypto. My targets remain unchanged. I still expect the cycle to peak in the $150,000 to $170,000 range for Bitcoin. That has been my view since the beginning of the bull market & nothing in the current setup has led me to revise it. Either way, if I am right we will trim our profits & reduce exposure to Crypto on the parabolic move upwards. Also if the base case is not correct we will have to trim positions so we are not caught unaware if we are gripped with an early bear market. I truly believe that the 4 year cycle has just been extended 3-6 months due to some of the exceptional circumstances I outlined above. It would be too easy to declare the death of Crypto but 20-30% downward moves happen regularly in Bitcoin even during bull markets. $ETH $SUI $ADA $IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust)

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