Alberto Poli
๐™’๐™š๐™š๐™ ๐™ก๐™ฎ ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐™๐™š๐™˜๐™–๐™ฅ Dear Copiers and follower, here are the key themes that shaped the markets this week. ๐Ÿ“Š 1๏ธโƒฃ ๐™.๐™Ž. ๐™‡๐™–๐™—๐™ค๐™ง ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ: ๐™€๐™–๐™ง๐™ก๐™ฎ ๐™Ž๐™ž๐™œ๐™ฃ๐™จ ๐™ค๐™› ๐˜พ๐™ค๐™ค๐™ก๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ The latest jobs report came in weaker than expected. Job creation fell short of forecasts, while previous months' figures were revised lower. Even more noteworthy was the decline in the labor force participation rate: unemployment edged lower, but not because the economy is creating significantly more jobsโ€”instead, fewer people are actively looking for work. ๐Ÿ‘‰ A signal that the labor market may be less resilient than the headline numbers suggest. ๐Ÿฆ 2๏ธโƒฃ ๐™๐™๐™š ๐™๐™š๐™™: ๐™’๐™–๐™ก๐™ ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™–๐™ฃ ๐™„๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™ง๐™š๐™–๐™จ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ๐™ก๐™ฎ ๐™๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™š ๐™‡๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™š The Federal Reserve continues to face a delicate balancing act. ๐Ÿ“ˆ On one side, inflation remains above target. ๐Ÿ“‰ On the other, the economy is gradually losing momentum. Markets have scaled back expectations for additional rate hikes in the near term, but the next inflation report will likely be the key catalyst for the weeks ahead. ๐ŸŒ 3๏ธโƒฃ ๐™€๐™ช๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฅ๐™š: ๐™„๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ก๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐˜พ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™ช๐™š๐™จ ๐™ฉ๐™ค ๐™€๐™–๐™จ๐™š Major European economies reported further signs of cooling inflation. Germany and France surprised to the downside, while Italy also showed modest improvement. Lower energy prices are helping ease inflationary pressures, but core inflation remains too elevated for the European Central Bank to fully let its guard down. ๐Ÿช™ 4๏ธโƒฃ ๐˜ฝ๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™‚๐™ค๐™ก๐™™ ๐˜ฝ๐™–๐™˜๐™  ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™Ž๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ฉ๐™ก๐™ž๐™œ๐™๐™ฉ After several weeks of weakness, Bitcoin rebounded, reclaiming key technical levels. Gold also continued to strengthen. Two very different assets, yet both are benefiting from the same trend: investors are increasingly seeking diversification as they begin looking beyond the technology sector. ๐Ÿ’ป 5๏ธโƒฃ ๐˜ผ๐™„ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™๐™š๐™˜๐™๐™ฃ๐™ค๐™ก๐™ค๐™œ๐™ฎ: ๐™๐™๐™š ๐™๐™ž๐™ง๐™จ๐™ฉ ๐™’๐™–๐™ซ๐™š ๐™ค๐™› ๐™‹๐™ง๐™ค๐™›๐™ž๐™ฉ-๐™๐™–๐™ ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ Artificial Intelligence remains the market's primary growth driver. However, after months of nearly uninterrupted gains, investors are beginning to take profits in semiconductor companies and businesses tied to AI infrastructure. This doesn't necessarily signal a trend reversal. Rather, the market appears to be becoming more selective, distinguishing between companies with strong fundamentals and those whose valuations have become increasingly stretched. ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ 6๏ธโƒฃ ๐™Š๐™ž๐™ก ๐™‹๐™ง๐™ž๐™˜๐™š๐™จ ๐˜ฟ๐™š๐™˜๐™ก๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™š, ๐™„๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ก๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™๐™š๐™ข๐™–๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™จ ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™๐™ค๐™˜๐™ช๐™จ Easing geopolitical tensions contributed to a pullback in oil prices. This has helped moderate inflation expectations, providing some relief for both central banks and interest rate-sensitive assets. ๐ŸŒพ 7๏ธโƒฃ ๐˜ผ๐™ฃ ๐™๐™ฃ๐™™๐™š๐™ง-๐™ฉ๐™๐™š-๐™๐™–๐™™๐™–๐™ง ๐™๐™ž๐™จ๐™ : ๐˜ผ๐™œ๐™ง๐™ž๐™˜๐™ช๐™ก๐™ฉ๐™ช๐™ง๐™–๐™ก ๐˜พ๐™ค๐™ข๐™ข๐™ค๐™™๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™š๐™จ One of the week's less-discussed developments was the U.S. government's decision to declare a national emergency regarding phosphate fertilizers. At first glance, this may seem unrelated to financial markets, but it could become increasingly relevant in the coming months. If agricultural production costs continue to rise, the impact could eventually feed through into food prices, keeping alive an often-overlooked component of inflation. ๐Ÿ“Œ ๐™’๐™š๐™š๐™ ๐™ก๐™ฎ ๐™๐™–๐™ ๐™š๐™–๐™ฌ๐™–๐™ฎ๐™จ โœ… The overall market trend remains constructive. โœ… Expectations surrounding the Fed are becoming more balanced. โœ… Bitcoin and gold continue to benefit from investors' search for diversification. โœ… Technology remains the market leader, but stock selection is becoming increasingly important. โœ… At the same time, several macro risksโ€”including the labor market, inflation, and commodity pricesโ€”remain firmly on the radar. $GOLD $BTC $OIL $NSDQ100
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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