Stelian Mitu @stelianx: "𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗥𝘂𝗻, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿..."

Romania

𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗥𝘂𝗻, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿? 🤔 June kicked off with a bang. The portfolio rose +1.97% yesterday, and that's despite running low exposure. $SPX500 is set up for the 10th consecutive week of bull run; I presented the reasoning for the here: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗡𝗼𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗤𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻 etoro.tw/4v7Sq8x We're deep into what looks like a stretched, euphoric run, and the obvious question is: how long can it last? So I took a step back. Waaaay back. Two periods in the last hundred years stand out for this kind of valuation-and-sentiment extreme: the 1996-1999 "irrational exuberance" before the dot-com crash, and the 1926-1929 "roaring twenties" before the 1929 bust. Today feels like a "𝙧𝙤𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙚𝙭𝙪𝙗𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚" of its own. That's my read, not a forecast. Three data points sitting behind that view: 1️⃣ 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁. FINRA data show US margin debt hit a record near $1.30 trillion in April 2026, up 6.8% on the month and about 53% on the year. Measured against GDP that's stretched, roughly 2.7 to 3x the long-run median. Though we're not yet at the 1929 "everyone and their dog buying on margin" extreme. 2️⃣ 𝗖𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀. May's BofA Global Fund Manager Survey showed a net 50% of managers overweight equities, up from just 13% in April. BofA flagged it as the largest one-month jump on record (Axios called it the steepest since 2001). That's a stampede by any measure. 3️⃣ 𝗦𝗸𝘆-𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀. SpaceX is reportedly eyeing an IPO near $1.75 trillion, with Anthropic around $1 trillion and OpenAI close to a trillion too. Together the three exceed $3 trillion. It rhymes a little with the dot-com "new paradigm" maths built on "clicks," "eyeballs" and "page views." These days it's tokens and GPUs. Make of that what you will. How far could the "roaring exuberance" run? If 1996 or 1926 is any guide, it could take a couple of years to play out. I'm keeping a wary eye on a possible reversal, but it still looks elusive. One trigger worth watching is mega-IPOs like SpaceX or Anthropic pulling cash out of existing positions. I sketched that out here: 🚀 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗻, 𝘄𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺… 𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗫 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝘅𝘆𝗴𝗲𝗻 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 etoro.tw/43gxXST Or it could run for years yet. I don't know; I just follow the flow. 𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥 The music's still playing and we're dancing along, while keeping a wary ear out for the tempo slowing in $NSDQ100 $SPX500 $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) $RTY 𝗖𝗼𝗽𝘆 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲 | 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝘁 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 | 𝗣𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗴𝘂𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.