Jean-Paul van Oudheusden
Netherlands
๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜€' ๐—ข๐—ก๐—˜ ๐—ง๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ด๐˜† ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜„๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—น๐—บ๐˜€ I've spent some time this morning digesting Siemens' new strategy. Here's a summary of my analysis. Siemens has unveiled its new ONE Tech strategy, aiming to transform itself from a traditional industrial conglomerate into a more software-driven company. A major move in the strategy is Siemensโ€™ intention to distribute a 30% stake in Siemens Healthineersโ€”its medical-equipment subsidiaryโ€”to shareholders as a dividend. Although this divestment frees up capital and removes a low-synergy business from Siemensโ€™ balance sheet, the fact that no external buyer seems willing to take the stake is a concern. The latest quarterly figures (Q3 CY2025 / Q4 FY2025) were broadly in line with expectations. Revenue grew 3% to โ‚ฌ21.4 billion, orders fell 4% due to a strong prior year, net profit declined 13% due to restructuring costs, but free cash flow rose to a record โ‚ฌ10.8 billion. Still, the strategic roadmap drew the most attention. With ONE Tech, Siemens wants to better integrate its Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure and Mobility divisions around customer needs. The company is targeting 6โ€“9% annual revenue growth overall, with Digital Industries expected to grow 15% per year. Siemens plans to deepen its leadership in industrial software and expand aggressively in the US, China and India. It will invest โ‚ฌ1 billion in AI over three years and expand its team of 1,500 AI specialists. However, several structural challenges remain. Many factories are still too customised to scale software solutions quickly. Competitionโ€”especially from Chinese industrial software providersโ€”is intensifying. The biggest concern may be talent: Germany is losing AI experts to China and the US, raising doubts about Siemensโ€™ ability to attract and retain the people needed to execute its strategy. Although the broader German tech and industrial ecosystem is showing new signs of lifeโ€”large AI and datacenter investments from Deutsche Telekom, NVIDIA, and Googleโ€”Siemensโ€™ own long-term targets still imply a slow ramp-up. The share price had surged 30% this year in anticipation of the new strategy, leaving the stock on a high 22ร— earnings multiple. By the โ€œrule of 40,โ€ Siemens still scores far too low to excite most technology investors. Let me know if you have a different view. Kind regards, Jean-Paul $SIE.DE (Siemens Aktiengesellschaft) $SHL.DE (Siemens Healthineers AG)
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