Analysis of the market and portfolio – 26/01/2026
We are heading toward the upcoming FOMC meeting (this Wednesday), which will decide on the US interest rates. The consensus is for a hold at 3.75%, but volatility is expected anyway, as investors will look for clues on what to expect in 2026. At the moment, the most probable scenario is two to three rate cuts this year, so any wording during the meeting that hints at a different path could potentially create sharp moves in either direction.
One data point I find particularly interesting is the personal saving rate, published on January 22nd by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (image attached). The personal saving rate is still declining, from 3.7% in October to 3.5% in November. This means consumers have less cushion if layoffs increase or inflation accelerates again.
This makes me think that, if we do get a surprise regarding the number of rate cuts this year, it is more likely to be a negative surprise (fewer than 2–3 cuts to fight inflation) rather than a positive one (more than 2–3 cuts).
Regarding our portfolio, we did quite well last week, thanks to some of our main holdings ( $NOW (ServiceNow Inc) and $MSFT (Microsoft) ), which accelerated nicely toward the end of the week. We added $AAPL (Apple) to the portfolio, as planned, and exited $COST (Costco Wholesale Corp) after taking profits on a very solid investment.
We deployed some additional cash, but we are still sitting at a very conservative 43% cash position. This reflects my view of a market that looks overstretched, combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In this environment, it makes sense to me not to be overly exposed in case conditions deteriorate.
Regarding our Forex exposure, with the Bank of Japan intervening in the Forex market to limit further yen devaluation, our $CHFJPY trade, which had been under pressure for several weeks, turned green in just two days. This was our plan from the very beginning, so we deserve a little celebration for the patience and discipline shown on a trading idea that ultimately played out exactly as expected.
Thanks for reading, and good luck!... Show More
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
