Luca Meier @LucaMeier: "📊 Daily Portfolio Update Wednesday, May..."

Switzerland

📊 Daily Portfolio Update Wednesday, May 6, 2026 🌎 MACRO The day's story is one of the biggest macro pivots since the Iran war began: credible peace deal optimism. Axios reported this morning that the U.S. and Iran are close to a 14-point memorandum of understanding that would end the war, lift American sanctions, and see both sides stand down from controlling the Strait of Hormuz. The deal would involve Iran agreeing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment. [1] Trump confirmed the thrust of the report in a Truth Social post, writing that the war "will be at an end" if Iran agrees, allowing the Strait of Hormuz to "open to all." He warned that if Iran refuses, bombing would resume "at a much higher level." Iran's foreign ministry said it is "evaluating" the 14-article proposal. [1] Pakistan, which has been mediating talks, said a formal proposal is "very likely in the coming days." [1] Markets reacted sharply. The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed up 2.3%, the $GER40 gained 2.2%, the $FRA40 rose 2.9%. $OIL fell sharply to two-week lows on the prospect of Hormuz reopening — that single development is the most bearish scenario for crude since the war started. [2] The only sector in the red across Europe was oil and gas. Everything else rallied hard. [2] $GOLD paradoxically, surged. The standard war premium unwind would push gold lower, but today the metal rose sharply as investors interpreted the potential deal as unlocking pent-up demand and reflation rather than outright deflation. Mining and commodity stocks broadly ripped higher in sympathy. 📈 PORTFOLIO The gold miner positions were the standout winners today. JNUG gained 13.2% and NUGT 12.2%, with individual miners following: Pan American Silver +9.8%, Eldorado Gold +8.5%, Alamos Gold +7.6%, AngloGold +6.5%. The surge came alongside gold's sharp recovery and a broader rotation into hard assets as the market digested what a Hormuz reopening would mean for global supply chains. [2] BHP Group gained 8.8% and Anglo American 7.4%, reflecting the same commodity re-rating theme — a peace deal accelerates global trade normalization and boosts demand for copper and iron ore. [2] $KER.PA (Kering SA) jumped 6.5%. Luxury goods have been among the biggest victims of the Iran war, with Middle East tourism and Gulf consumer spending gutted since hostilities began. Peace deal optimism directly re-rates luxury demand recovery. Kering's Q1 results three weeks ago showed Gucci sales still down 8% year-on-year, weighed by the war — any Hormuz resolution puts that recovery thesis back on the table. [2] On the losing side, the entire energy book fell hard. Equinor dropped 8.3% — the steepest single-day decline since the war began. Ecopetrol fell 5.2%, Eni 4.2%, Exxon 3.8%, Chevron 3.5%, Petrobras 3.5%, TotalEnergies 3.2%. The logic is mechanical: Hormuz reopening means Iranian and UAE crude flow returns to market, removing the war premium that has driven energy stocks higher for two months. [1][2] These are not distress signals — they are the natural reverse of the trade that worked on the way up. 📋 TRADES $SPOT (Spotify Technologies SA) long position closed yesterday at essentially breakeven (Stop Loss), opened in early February at the same price. Three months of holding with minimal net result. SOURCES: [1] www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/us-iran-peace-deal-nuclear-moratorium.html [2] www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/european-stocks-hormuz-de-escalation-markets-trump.html

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.