Carlos Figueroa Vaca @cfigueroa1982: "ᴇᴄᴏɴᴏᴍɪᴄ ᴏᴜᴛʟᴏᴏᴋ ꜰᴏʀ ᴛʜᴇ ꜱᴇᴄᴏɴᴅ..."

Ecuador

ᴇᴄᴏɴᴏᴍɪᴄ ᴏᴜᴛʟᴏᴏᴋ ꜰᴏʀ ᴛʜᴇ ꜱᴇᴄᴏɴᴅ ʜᴀʟꜰ ᴏꜰ 𝟤𝟢𝟤𝟨 We are very close to the start of the second half of 2026, and it is a good time to pause and understand how markets may behave during the remainder of the year. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East will continue to set the pace for both financial markets and the global economy. United States: The Return of Inflation The United States enters the midpoint of 2026 with a two-speed economy. GDP expanded by only 1.6% annualized in the first quarter (revised downward), but the Atlanta Fed's nowcast points to a strong rebound (around 4%) in the second quarter, driven by spending on data centers and artificial intelligence. The labor market is cooling in an orderly manner: payroll growth reached 115,000 jobs in April, while unemployment stands at 4.3%. The warning sign is the consumer: the savings rate fell to 2.6%, its lowest level since 2022. Interest Rates, the Dollar, and Equities The inflation rebound pushed expectations higher across the entire yield curve. In December, markets expected rates to end 2026 within a 3.00–3.25% range. Today, the most likely range implied by futures has shifted to 3.25–3.50%, suggesting only one rate cut, with a meaningful possibility that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates at all. This represents a significant hawkish shift from the original outlook. Oil and WTI: The Geopolitical Pivot $OIL remains the key factor shaping the 2026 landscape. The Iran war disrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20 million barrels per day pass, representing nearly one-quarter of global seaborne crude oil trade. In April, Gulf producers (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain) were forced to cut production by approximately 10.5 million barrels per day. WTI crude surpassed 100 USD per barrel in March and continues to trade above 95 USD in early June, while Brent remains near 106 USD. Gold: The Safe-Haven Asset of the Year $GOLD was the standout performer of the first half of the year. It surpassed 5,000 USD per ounce for the first time in January and, after a correction, now trades near 4,485 USD. $SILVER also rallied strongly, reaching 116 USD. Precious metals are supported by a powerful combination of factors: a weaker dollar, contained real interest rates, central bank purchases, and the geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict. As long as these conditions continue to favor defensive assets, the long-term outlook remains positive. Crypto: Bitcoin and the Clarity Act The cryptocurrency market tells a different story in 2026. $BTC trades near 67,000 USD, down approximately 36% from a year ago, while $ETH remains below 2,000 USD. Risk aversion stemming from the conflict, along with roughly 2.4 billion USD in net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs in May, the largest monthly outflow of the year, has weighed on the asset class. The 50,000 USD level remains the key technical and psychological pivot for the second half of the year. U.S. Equities and IPOs The $SPX500 continues to hold near record highs (around 7,600, up 8.5% year-to-date) despite geopolitical shocks, supported by earnings growth of approximately 28%. Leadership is concentrated in semiconductors, energy, defense, and industrials, the sectors benefiting most from the combination of AI investment and geopolitical developments. Valuations (with a forward P/E ratio around 21x) demand selectivity: the market continues to reward companies benefiting from AI-related capital expenditures and global rearmament, while laggards are being left behind. -Carlos $NSDQ100 $DJ30

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.