Hello, everyone
One thing stands out right now: the clustering of extreme market events.
$SILVER collapsed over 30%, rebounding, then dropping double-digits again within hours. Now equities are showing similar stress patterns — not via headline crashes, but through violent internal rotations.
Defensive sectors like Consumer Staples are seeing the largest inflows on record, while former leaders — tech, AI, momentum stocks — are being aggressively sold. Last session marked the sixth-worst day for momentum stocks versus value in history, while staples reached statistical extremes not seen since the early 1990s.
This kind of offense-to-defense rotation has only appeared once before in comparable form — in 2000, shortly before the dot-com unwind. That doesn’t mean history repeats, but it does rhyme.
Beneath the surface, market internals are diverging:
Over 70% of S&P 500 stocks closed higher, yet the index finished lower
The average stock is ~14% below its 52-week high, while indices remain near ATHs
$DJ30 and Transports outperformed sharply while tech absorbed most of the pressure
That divergence highlights concentration risk — stability depends on a shrinking group of leaders.
On the AI front, earnings themselves aren’t the core issue — capital intensity and guidance are. Major players are transitioning from cash-flow machines into infrastructure investors, committing record levels of capex. That supports economic activity, but raises questions around efficiency, margins, and return on capital.
Despite the recent sell-off, it’s important to keep perspective: even a 3,000-point pullback in the Nasdaq 100 would still leave the long-term uptrend intact. The discussion isn’t about direction — it’s about altitude and positioning after an extended run.
Key Index Levels
$NSDQ100
The index dropped to 24,650 yesterday — the December low — before stabilising and bouncing. It is currently trading near 24,950.
Immediate support: 24,900
Next support: 24,650
Below that: ~24,400
So far, prior support is being respected, which is typical of a controlled retracement.
$SPX500
The S&P briefly dipped to 6,835 before rebounding and is now trading around 6,885.
First support: 6,840
Next support: 6,800, aligned with the January low
These are technical consolidation zones, not structural breakdown levels.
Side Note for Copiers:
Just to add some context at the end:
What we’re seeing right now was fully anticipated. I adjusted the portfolio for this phase well in advance and communicated these expectations early, precisely so that moves like this don’t come as a surprise.
This is exactly why preparation matters. When volatility arrives — and it always does — it doesn’t create disappointment; it simply confirms that the positioning was thoughtful and intentional.
Markets go through phases. Being ready for them is what protects capital and creates opportunity later on.
From that perspective, this phase isn’t uncomfortable — It´s working exactly as intended.
Mike
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