Recap & Radar: Iran Deal and Warsh's First Fed Meeting
Dear copiers, investors and followers,
In this Recap & Radar, I'll briefly cover what moved markets recently and what could matter in the days ahead, with a focus on what is potentially relevant for my portfolio.
Geopolitics: the Iran deal
Over the weekend, the United States and Iran announced a framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict. President Trump said on Sunday that the deal had been reached, with a formal signing reportedly expected on Friday, June 19, in Geneva, under mediation from Pakistan and Qatar. At this stage, however, details remain limited and the full text has not been made public. Initial statements from the two sides do not fully overlap, and Israel has already indicated that it does not intend to withdraw from Lebanon. For this reason, while markets may welcome the headline as a step toward de-escalation, the risk of an incomplete or only partial implementation remains significant.
The week ahead: Warsh's first FOMC
The main event is Wednesday's Fed decision, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh. A hold is widely expected, so the focus shifts to the dot plot, with inflation near 4.2% keeping the tone hawkish. May's retail sales land the same day, after the Empire State index and industrial production today, and housing starts tomorrow.
Markets and commodities
On $OIL, I would stay cautious, regardless of Friday's signing. Prices stayed relatively contained during the conflict mainly because China cut imports and drew down reserves while the United States lifted output, not because supply was abundant. As flows normalize, China will likely need to rebuild those reserves, and that returning demand could absorb much of the supply coming back through the strait. So, a reopened Hormuz does not automatically mean lower crude, and how long the chain takes to fully normalize is unclear. $GOLD is caught between a potentially hawkish Fed in the short term, and the longer-term debasement case that keeps it a structural hold.
Ad maiora
This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation. Every decision remains the sole responsibility of each investor.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
