๐ Market Update โ Hedge Fund Capitulation & Portfolio Positioning
Goldman Sachs reported today that hedge funds have cut global equity holdings for six consecutive weeks. Short exposure in European macro products is at an 11-year high. Their trading desk is calling it capitulation. Historically, this is what bottoms look like โ not tops.
Meanwhile we're sitting on ~31% cash, our highest level in recent memory. That's firepower.
What's working:
- Defence & Aerospace (Rolls-Royce, BAE, Rheinmetall, Airbus) remain the portfolio's strongest sleeve. Rheinmetall is guiding 45% sales growth for 2026. These names continue to earn their place every week.
- Silver (iShares Physical Silver) is up ~30%. Real assets are doing exactly what they're supposed to do.
- Energy (Chevron, Shell) benefits directly from Brent above $111.
- Quality tech (ASML, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia) โ world-class businesses now trading at compressed multiples. This is where long-term alpha gets built.
On the opportunity
The S&P 500 is ~7% below its January highs. Institutional money is running for the exits. When hedge funds capitulate at this pace, the snap-back โ when it comes โ tends to be sharp and fast.
If you've been waiting for the right moment to add to your copy allocation, this is the kind of environment that rewards conviction. The best entry points never feel comfortable.
We have liquidity. We have diversification.
Patience & discipline,
Heloรฏse
(30 March 2026)
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*๐๐ข๐ฑ๐ช๐ต๐ข๐ญ ๐ช๐ด ๐ข๐ต ๐ณ๐ช๐ด๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ฑ๐ข๐ด๐ต ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ฆ ๐ช๐ด ๐ฏ๐ฐ ๐จ๐ถ๐ข๐ณ๐ข๐ฏ๐ต๐ฆ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ง๐ถ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ฏ๐ด.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
The Goldman hedge fund flow data aligns with what we're tracking across our systematic indicators - six weeks of deleveraging typically marks institutional capitulation phases. With 31% cash, you're positioned for the snap-back. Are you seeing any early divergences in credit markets that might... Show More
I consider myself fairly new to copy trading and certainly inexperienced. I have found your update very reassuring during this tricky period, following the middle East war.
Thank you.... Show More
Itโs almost impossible to time things perfectly, but if you have confidence in a strategy or strategy of a PI with a long track record, then entering during a drawdown is a decent plan. Of course things can go down further, but more likely that youโll see better gains long-term.
Out of curiously, what... Show More
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