Analysis of the market and portfolio – 26/01/2026
We are heading toward the upcoming FOMC meeting (this Wednesday), which will decide on the US interest rates. The consensus is for a hold at 3.75%, but volatility is expected anyway, as investors will look for clues on what to expect in 2026. At the moment, the most probable scenario is two to three rate cuts this year, so any wording during the meeting that hints at a different path could potentially create sharp moves in either direction.
One data point I find particularly interesting is the personal saving rate, published on January 22nd by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (image attached). The personal saving rate is still declining, from 3.7% in October to 3.5% in November. This means consumers have less cushion if layoffs increase or inflation accelerates again.
This makes me think that, if we do get a surprise regarding the number of rate cuts this year, it is more likely to be a negative surprise (fewer than 2–3 cuts to fight inflation) rather than a positive one (more than 2–3 cuts).
Regarding our portfolio, we did quite well last week, thanks to some of our main holdings ( $NOW (ServiceNow Inc) and $MSFT (Microsoft) ), which accelerated nicely toward the end of the week. We added $AAPL (Apple) to the portfolio, as planned, and exited $COST (Costco Wholesale Corp) after taking profits on a very solid investment.
We deployed some additional cash, but we are still sitting at a very conservative 43% cash position. This reflects my view of a market that looks overstretched, combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In this environment, it makes sense to me not to be overly exposed in case conditions deteriorate.
Regarding our Forex exposure, with the Bank of Japan intervening in the Forex market to limit further yen devaluation, our $CHFJPY trade, which had been under pressure for several weeks, turned green in just two days. This was our plan from the very beginning, so we deserve a little celebration for the patience and discipline shown on a trading idea that ultimately played out exactly as expected.
Thanks for reading, and good luck!... Show More
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Sun Apr 19 2026 04:38:06 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
