Alberto Poli @pino428: "📈 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙊𝙪𝙩𝙡𝙤𝙤𝙠 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲: 𝙁𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩..."

Italy

📈 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙊𝙪𝙩𝙡𝙤𝙤𝙠 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲: 𝙁𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙔𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙒𝙚𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩 𝙢𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤 𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙤𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲! 🥂 We are starting the year on the right foot: this first week of trading is delivering solid results, with markets showing surprising resilience despite headlines being dominated by geopolitical events of historic proportions. Here is what’s happening beneath the surface of the markets: - 𝙏𝙝𝙚 "𝙑𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙯𝙪𝙚𝙡𝙖 𝘾𝙖𝙨𝙚" 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝘿𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙖𝙧’𝙨 𝙍𝙚𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 The arrest of Nicolás Maduro and Trump's statements briefly rattled sentiment, but the "flight to safety" effect on the Dollar was short-lived. • 𝙎𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩/𝙈𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙪𝙢 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙇𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙏𝙚𝙧𝙢: The Dollar remains supported in the very short term by favorable seasonality (January is historically a strong month) and solid US data (Q3 GDP at +4.3%). However, in the medium-to-long term, the Dollar is showing signs of weakness: the "debasement" theme is gaining traction, and the potential appointment of a Fed Chair closer to Trump’s positions later this year could trigger further declines. 🛢️ 𝙀𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙮: Oil is Looking Ahead Despite the political noise, the crude oil market is ignoring immediate tensions. A massive return of Venezuelan oil will require years of investment. In its latest report, the EIA forecasts a reduction in global prices due to rising global inventories throughout 2026. Brent is expected to drop to an average of $55 per barrel as early as the first quarter, stabilizing at those levels. However, the decline won’t be a "free fall": OPEC+ production policies and continued inventory builds in China will act as a parachute for prices. 🏛️ 𝙁𝙚𝙙: Financial Plumbing in Action Interestingly, on New Year's Eve, the Federal Reserve injected over $74 billion in liquidity into the system via the Standing Repo Facility. • This is neither a bailout nor money printing: it is pure "financial plumbing" to ensure banks had the necessary cash for year-end balance sheet reporting. • The Macro Signal: The system is holding up, but reserves are starting to run thin after months of monetary tightening. The current stability is a delicate balance that we will monitor closely. 𝙀𝙪𝙧𝙤𝙥𝙚: Vigilant Waiting In the Eurozone, German inflation is trending down (2.1%), but it’s not enough to change the narrative. The ECB remains "hawkish": without a sharp deterioration in growth, significant rate cuts in 2026 will be hard to justify. 𝘾𝙧𝙮𝙥𝙩𝙤 & 𝙀𝙏𝙁𝙨: Starting with a Bang 2026 is starting under the best possible auspices for crypto. After a period of consolidation in December, inflows into Bitcoin and Altcoin ETFs have resumed with force: • +$671 million in inflows in the last week alone. • Although BTC ETFs saw a 35% drop in capital flows in 2025, significant inflows were seen in Ethereum, XRP, and Solana during the same period. • Institutional adoption in Germany and Canada is accelerating significantly. 𝙄𝙣 𝙎𝙪𝙢𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙮: The market wants to move forward, ignoring geopolitical risks for now to focus on the strength of risky assets. We remain confident for the start of this quarter, while keeping a close eye on global liquidity and geopolitical dynamics. 𝙃𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙮 𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙖 𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙧𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝙩𝙤 𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙮𝙤𝙣𝙚! 🚀 $EURUSD $OIL $BTC $ETH

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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