π Last year Santa brought markets AI enthusiasm. What do you think Santa brings markets to ride in 2026?
The US economy just delivered a strong signal into year-end. GDP grew 4.3% annualized in Q3, the fastest pace in two years, supported by resilient consumers, solid business spending, and calmer trade dynamics.
Household spending rose 3.5%, led by services. Even with a higher cost of living, demand remains firm and continues to anchor growth.
At the same time, business investment is quietly doing the heavy lifting. Record spending on data centers and computing power shows that AI is no longer a narrative, itβs capex. According to BlackRock Investment Institute, the AI buildout could become one of the largest investment cycles in history, potentially USD 5β8 trillion globally through 2030. This is why βmicro is macroβ today, decisions by a handful of companies now directly influence GDP, productivity, and earnings.
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Insights echoed market outlook suggest a shift from pure valuation expansion toward earnings-driven returns. The $SPX500 may face more volatility and rotation, but earnings growth, AI productivity, and capital investment remain key supports. This is a healthier setup than a liquidity-only rally, but it also means more dispersion and less forgiveness for weak balance sheets.
AI spending is front-loaded, while revenues come later. That creates constraints: energy supply, power grids, infrastructure, and financing. The opportunity set therefore broadens from AI platforms alone to energy, infrastructure, and selective credit, where real-world bottlenecks meet long-term demand.
π Merry Christmas! π... Show More
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