- 63% anticipate market rally will continue into the new year
- Majority (78%) of retail investors feel confident about their investments
- Political uncertainty and slowing economic growth are main threats to the rally
- About half (44%) of retail investors anticipate interest rates declining in the coming year
- A third (30%) plan to invest more as interest rates decline, particularly Millennial investors
Wednesday, December 10, 2025 – The majority (63%) of American retail investors are optimistic that the current bull market will extend into the next year, according to the latest quarterly Retail Investor Beat from trading and investing platform eToro.
The study, which surveyed 1,000 retail investors across the United States, found that retail investors’ positive outlook for 2026 is also reflected in confidence levels in their portfolios, with 78% expressing confidence in their investments, a percentage that remains unchanged from Q4 2024.
When asked about whether they are on track to achieve their investment goals, a majority (62%) believe they are, while 21% say it’s too early to tell.
Commenting on the data, eToro’s US Investment Analyst Bret Kenwell, said: “After another strong year, retail investors remain confident in their long-term approach. While they recognize near-term risks to the economy, investors continue to focus on the positives — like strong earnings growth and falling interest rates — as they look for the bull market to carry into 2026. Despite the market’s short-term ebbs and flows, investors remain committed to their goals and steady, disciplined investing.”
The latest Retail Investor Beat reveals that investors see political uncertainty (42%), slowing economic growth or a recession (40%), and persistent or surging inflation (38%) as the leading external risks to the bull market in 2026.
Biggest external risks to bull market
| Political uncertainty | 42% |
| Slowing economic growth or recession | 40% |
| Persistent or resurging inflation | 38% |
| Global supply chain disruptions or commodity shocks | 29% |
| Geopolitical instability or war | 27% |
| Consumer demand weakening | 25% |
| Interest rate hikes or tighter monetary policy | 24% |
| High market valuations / asset bubbles | 24% |
| Weak corporate earnings | 21% |
Kenwell added: “US equities have now put together three incredible years for investors, and yet, risks still loom as we go into 2026. That’s as the political landscape has shifted over the past 12 months, and as labor market and inflation worries weigh on the consumer. Despite this, retail investors know that long-term trends favor the bulls, many may still adjust their portfolios along the way to reduce risk or take advantage of a pullback. Diversification was a major theme in 2025 and as we saw earlier in the year, having cash ready for an opportunity proved prudent.”
Investors anticipate interest rate changes for 2026
A majority (72%) of investors anticipate changes in interest rates in 2026, with 44% expecting a decrease and 28% an increase. There’s a split among those who foresee a decrease, 21% predict a slight reduction of up to 0.25%, while 20% expect a moderate decrease between 0.25% and 0.75%.
Interest rates expectations for 2026
| Rates will increase dramatically (> +0.75%) | 4% |
| Rates will increase moderately (+0.25% to +0.75%) | 9% |
| Rates will increase slightly (< +0.25%) | 15% |
| Rates will remain about the same | 17% |
| Rates will decrease slightly (< -0.25%) | 21% |
| Rates will decrease moderately ( -0.25% to -0.75%) | 20% |
| Rates will decrease dramatically (> -0.75%) | 4% |
The current interest rate decline has prompted 53% of retail investors to adjust their portfolios. Of those planning further changes, 30% intend to invest more. This is particularly relevant for younger investors with 36% of Generation Z, 46% of millennials, and 31% of Generation X planning to increase their investments, compared to 13% of baby boomers.
As interest rates decline, retail investors are planning to allocate more of their investments in the next 12 months to growth sector stocks (25%), cash or short-term savings (23%), dividend-yielding stocks (19%), high-yield bonds (18%), cryptoassets (17%), real estate and property funds (17%), and commodities such as gold and oil (16%).
Bret Kenwell commented: “With expectations for a more dovish Fed in 2026, investors are increasingly looking at investment opportunities ahead. Investors are aiming to balance short-term uncertainty with long-term goals, with some opting for more defensive asset classes, while others are turning toward growth opportunities that could benefit from easing fiscal policy. At the same time, nearly an equal number of investors plan for no changes in their investment approach due to interest rates, showing they are more keen on sticking to their long-term plan rather than adjusting around short-term market events.”
ENDS
Notes to editors
About this report
The latest Retail Investor Beat was based on a survey of 11,000 retail investors across 13 countries and 3 continents. The following countries had 1,000 respondents: UK, US, Germany, France, Australia, Singapore, Italy and Spain. The following countries had 600 respondents: Netherlands, Denmark, Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic.
The survey was conducted from October 30, 2025 – November 13, 2025 and carried out by research company Opinium. Retail investors were defined as self-directed or advised and had to hold at least one investment product including shares, bonds, funds, investment ISAs or equivalent. They did not need to be eToro users.
The figures and results presented in this survey are based on the responses of participants at the time the survey was conducted. They reflect responders’ opinions, views and perceptions and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a guarantee of future performance. Percentages and results may not be representative of the broader population and are subject to change as market conditions and sentiment evolve.
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