The Bulls vs the Bears: A Reality Check on Sentiment

(eToro Blog) Today, we introduce our readers to a new eToro segment, “The Bulls vs the Bears” wherein we highlight OpenBook’s most bullish bulls and bearish bears. Our goal is to use this new feature to gauge market sentiment in our community and to pass our findings on to you.

In the current global economic environment, and given an overwhelmingly bearish sentiment among OpenBook’s traders, it was not easy by any means to find a die-hard bull. But persistence pays off, and we believe that OpenBook trader Marco2412 fits the criteria. Over the past six months, Marco2412 has traded exclusively from the long side of the currency pairs and commodities that he includes in his portfolio. Of 229 trades executed over that period, 98.7% of them resulted in a profit. Only two currency pairs have consistently given this guru any trouble, namely the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD. Both commodity-linked currencies have significantly depreciated as a result of global growth concerns and could see further deterioration as and when their respective central banks consider a more accommodative stance.

On the flip side, however, China is also expected to take on a more accommodative tone, which would help both those currencies in the long run. Thus the trader’s open positions in those pairs could swing back into positive territory. In the past month, the trader’s 5.6% allocation in the USD/CAD pair provided him with a 30.9% gain, attributed largely to the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar as a safe haven currency. But like Australia and New Zealand, China’s easing could help Canada’s economy. Canada is a major oil exporter in North America and analysts are forecasting a rise in oil prices, which would mean this guru would have to reconsider going long on the pair if he intends to keep his bullish demeanor.

One can’t talk about a bear without picturing OpenBook guru pawelskrzypek, but it would be remiss not to mention that he doesn’t necessarily see himself as a bear, only that the economic situation of late demands it. But the global economic situation has indeed worsened, and while many traders might say that they are taking a more bearish stance, they’ll still try to work both sides of the pair. Not this guru. Guru pawelskrzypek has taken a 100% bearish stance over the last quarter in the only currency pair that he trades, i.e., the Euro-Dollar, which has gained 6%. Every short position opened last week closed with a profit as it hit its TP, with gains that went as high as 28%. As of this writing, the guru has four open short positions, all in the green with gains ranging from 11.50% to 19.00%. Given the outlook, this guru’s bearish stance is not likely to change any time soon.

On the flip side, the guru is a native of Poland which, while not yet a member of the Eurozone, locals are more keenly aware of the economic situation which surely weighs as they consider a bid to join the Eurozone in the coming years. While guru pawelskrzypek is in the process of rebuilding his short positions, he will surely keep abreast of the fundamentals at play, and appropriately make a move. Though you’d have to go back to the beginning of the year to see it, there are a couple of long positions in this guru’s history, suggesting that when the time is right, this guru would not hesitate to don his bull regalia.

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