After the price of gold remained around $4,000 per ounce for an extended period, it has risen by approximately 11% since the beginning of August 2026. The recovery comes after a more challenging period in the first half of 2026, when its price fell from the January record of $5,586.
One of the drivers of this growth has been changing economic expectations in the US. Moderating inflation and weaker labor market data have cooled expectations of interest rate hikes by the central bank. Wall Street now expects just one rate hike this year. Until recently, it was expecting two. Lower expected real interest rates have therefore strengthened the outlook for gold.
Demand from central banks around the world has meanwhile accelerated. In the second quarter, these banks bought five times more gold than in the first quarter. According to the World Gold Council, a record 45% of central banks expect to further increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months. It appears that record prices prompted some central banks to slow the pace of their purchases. Following the decline, demand is clearly returning.
The buyers also include the Czech National Bank, which purchased approximately 6 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026. The CNB aims to increase its gold reserves to 100 tonnes by 2028, and at the current pace of around 20 tonnes per year, it could reach this target as early as next year, ahead of its original plan. The CNB currently holds 82.4 tonnes of gold. Over the past four years, it has purchased approximately 70 tonnes.
Demand for gold from ordinary investors is also being supported by the still-uncertain situation in the Middle East, as well as uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the US Federal Reserve under its new chairman, Kevin Warsh. Gold remains one of the most popular safe-haven assets.
From a medium-term perspective, these are good developments for gold. In the short term, investor attention and interest-rate expectations have a greater influence on its price. If the macroeconomic environment does not change, gold is unlikely to experience either a sharp surge or a major decline. For investors, however, it may represent a good long-term diversification asset.