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How will the French election affect the economy? Ask Popular Investor @srassili

This Popular Investor from France trades mostly stocks and some currencies, and defines himself as a swing trader. He has been with eToro since late 2015 and has shown impressive gains. He finished 2016 with an overall profit of 77% and so far in 2017, has kept his risk score lower than previous years. Check out his interview below and his thoughts on the second round of the French election.

  1. Tell us a little bit about yourself

My name is Soufian Rassili, I am 24 years old, from Paris, France. I work as a mechanical engineer in the automotive industry.

  1. Did you have previous experience with financial investments before joining eToro?

I consider investing in CFDs with eToro as my first real professional experience in financial investing. I am very satisfied and happy with my experience with eToro so far.

  1. Why did you choose to join eToro?

eToro is the ideal platform for trading. Thanks to its quality tools and user-friendly interface, the choice was quite obvious to me. This is by far the most unique and innovative social trading platform available on the market today.

  1. What are the three main advantages of eToro?

The three major advantages of eToro in my opinion are:

  • Help for beginners: Setting-up guides, tutorials and a forum to discuss, and also the virtual account to practice.
  • Ease: From the opening of an account in a few minutes, to the withdrawal of money, there is nothing easier to use than the eToro platform.
  • Social Trading: Allowing traders to interact with each other on current events and learn from each other’s experiences.
  1. How did eToro change the way you traded?

eToro has completely changed the way trading is done today. In contrast to traditional or conventional financial trading, eToro allows investing in financial markets as a community. We always have things to learn from others, or to teach others about trading. This way, everyone is enriched from the knowledge of others at eToro. If you have good analysis, techniques, or an interesting strategy, eToro encourages sharing it in community and to benefit others.

  1. What is your type of trading strategy and what is it focused on?

My current trading strategy is mainly based on swing-trading. I constantly analyze the market in order to take a long position as soon as a new bearish trend is detected. The important thing with this method is to detect the trend change which requires a good mastery of technical indicators. I work a lot on the US market, it is a very volatile market and adapts perfectly with my strategy.

  1. What are the advantages of being a Popular Investor and what is your long-term goal as such?

Being a Popular Investor allows me to motivate myself every day to give the best of myself. Knowing that one is being copied by someone else, requires my trading  to be rigorous and disciplined. My goal in the long run is to achieve an annual performance that exceeds the market (S&P500) while keeping my risk score not too high. The important thing for me is to maintain quality trading and earn the maximum profit every month. Success in trading and as a Popular Investor will be the consequence.

  1. Will you be trading around the French elections?

My trading strategy is independent of economic and political events. A good trader must be able to profit from a market that is bullish or bearish. So the answer is positive, I will be in front of my screen to wait for the first signal to buy or sell.

  1. What kind of impact do you think the French elections will have on the markets and on what instruments?

The French presidential election will impact heavily over the next two months. The Euro would certainly be very affected. The vote focuses on the following candidates; the volatile Marine Le Pen or the pro-European and liberal candidate Emmanuel Macron.

The tax promises of the two presidential candidates will directly impact the French equity market. If Emmanuel Macron is elected, his planned program on lowering corporate taxes and boosting competitiveness could boost the CAC40.

The election manifestos of the candidates are completely different and the hypothesis of a President without a majority, whatever it may be, is not excluded either. This is certainly the most important event of the quarter for financial centers in Europe.

  1. How do you think the markets will react to the results of the French elections ?

According to the experts, Emmanuel Macron is the most favorable candidate for economic growth, the French equity market and interest rates. However the risk of disappointment will remain ever present even if he is elected President of France on 7 May.

As for Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the National Front, her accession to power would have a very negative impact on the stock exchange, an almost obvious scenario of her anti-globalization policy.

If we look at the behavior of the CAC 40 index after the election day (second round), we realize that most of the time the CAC 40 is going downwards in the weeks that follow. However, the presidential elections of this year are very tense and the economic stakes are heavy especially with the impact of recent international events like the Brexit and the contemptuous policy of the American president Donald Trump with respect to Europe.

The CAC 40 index and the Euro were boosted by the result of the first round of voting. This is an expression of relief because the risk of seeing a Eurosceptic candidate win the election is now perceived as tiny.

On the basis of all the data, the trader will already be able to get an idea of ​​the changing evolution of the markets in the weeks and months to come. However, we must remain vigilant and not be carried away by the panic and uncertainty that these presidential elections can generate.

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