As global cocoa prices soared to record highs in 2024, the UAE’s chocolate market is facing both pressure and promise — driven by evolving tastes, viral trends, and rising input costs.
The UAE chocolate market, valued at an estimated USD $736 million in 2024, is projected to grow steadily over the next decade. However, rising commodity prices are starting to bite. Global cocoa prices surpassed $12,500 per metric ton in December, largely due to poor harvests in West Africa, a key sourcing region. This spike is already pushing manufacturers across the UAE to reevaluate pricing strategies, product formats, and ingredient sourcing.
Over a longer period, prices have risen significantly. From March 2024 to January 2025, cocoa prices soared as much as 93%, likely flowing through into this year’s chocolate prices and since March 2023, prices have risen nearly 200%.
The “Dubai Chocolate” Phenomenon
One of the most notable developments in early 2025 is the explosive popularity of what’s being dubbed “Dubai chocolate” — a pistachio-filled, tahini-rich chocolate bar that blends regional flavours with international indulgence. Born from a local chocolatier, the product went viral on social media earlier this year, prompting long lines at retailers and strict purchase limits at high-end grocery chains abroad.
The rise of Dubai chocolate highlights a larger trend in the UAE: consumers are increasingly gravitating towards premium, experience-driven products that reflect cultural identity while delivering global appeal. This shift may offer a buffer against price-sensitive demand, particularly in the luxury gifting segment and among younger demographics seeking Instagrammable treats.
Outlook for Chocolate
Cocoa prices have come down so far in 2025 after last year’s record highs. This move is being driven by increased production forecasts for the year ahead, which could drive a surplus and, therefore, easing supply concerns. But, external pressures continue to build. New international trade duties — including proposed tariffs on cocoa imports from major African producers — may indirectly impact UAE-based producers who rely on global supply chains. Sustainability regulations from key trading partners are also expected to increase compliance costs over time.
Despite these challenges, local and global brands operating in the UAE are showing resilience. Many are focusing on premiumisation, smaller pack sizes, and flavour innovation to maintain profitability. For the consumer, this means “shrinkflation.” To combat rising costs, chocolate manufacturers are reducing the size of their products rather than raising prices directly. Yes, that means your favourite chocolates are getting smaller, but the price tag isn’t. This helps mitigate the impact of rising cocoa prices without the immediate backlash of visible price hikes. This often means consumers pay more per gram of chocolate.
Demand for chocolate is likely to stay strong, especially during festive and gifting seasons like Eid and Diwali, meaning the outlook for the UAE chocolate market remains solid. But, costs will remain uncertain. Manufacturers that adapt quickly, by leveraging local preferences, sourcing flexibly, and investing in standout product design, are likely to maintain momentum in a market where tradition and trend now go hand in hand.
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