Summary Coming Q2 earnings the next market test US banks kick off Q2 global earnings season on Friday. Look for some validation to the dramatic first half rally. Valuations...

Summary Taking a third quarter breather Expect more measured Q3 returns as markets digest big gains and prepare for strong finish to year. With summer seasonality weaker,...

SHOPPING: Consumers have been the key to the economic resilience of the US. With labour markets strong, falling inflation, resilient housing and stock market prices, and not all...

LIVESTOCK: Live cattle (beef) and lean hogs (pork) prices are up double digits this year. Alongside the rally in smaller ‘breakfast’ commodities and in contrast to the 10% fall in...

LUXURY: It has strongly outperformed this year, with its valuations rerating on a combination of resilient consumer demand and strong pricing power. It also benefits from a...

INTERVENTION: Currency interventions are back in fashion from Japan to China and Switzerland. They are a part of the policy toolkit, but the chance of success varies widely. All...

Summary Taking a third quarter breather Expect more measured Q3 returns as markets digest big gains and prepare for strong finish to year. With summer seasonality weaker,...

BREATHER: We see cooler returns as Q3 starts. As markets digest big gains and prep for a strong finish to the year. Summer seasonality is weaker, volatility low, and the growth...

SEASON: El Niño weather conditions are expected to strengthen into the winter. This typically brings widespread weather and agricultural commodities disruption. But one silver...

VOLATILITY: Equity volatility has plunged to a post-covid low on both sides of the Atlantic. The VIX ‘fear gauge’ is down near 40% this year, well under its own long term average...