Dutch company ASML, Europe’s most valuable firm by market capitalization, will report its quarterly results on Wednesday. Investors will be looking for signs that the AI infrastructure build-out and demand for chips are not slowing down.
ASML makes lithography machines, the equipment essential for producing advanced chips. In early June, it became the most valuable company in the history of European markets, and its market value now stands at €621 billion. The key to its position is its monopoly in the AI infrastructure supply chain: ASML is the world’s only maker of EUV machines. A single machine can cost over $300 million and weigh more than 150 tonnes. It can print features just 8 nanometres wide onto silicon wafers, roughly ten thousand times thinner than a human hair. Without these machines, TSMC, Samsung and Intel could not produce the most advanced chips, including processors for Nvidia and Apple.
The market expects nothing but the best from ASML. In July, the company raised its full-year revenue outlook for the second time this year, from the original €36–40 billion to €43–45 billion. For the third quarter, it expects revenue of €11–12 billion, compared with €9.3 billion in the second quarter. Wall Street expects earnings of $12.54 per share, nearly double the $6.41 a year ago. According to the options market, the stock could move almost 6% in either direction after the results. In practice, that would mean a rise to as high as €1,700. In a worse scenario, shares could test the €1,500 level.
Its growth is driven mainly by global investment in artificial intelligence. Almost half of the systems ASML sold in the second quarter went to memory chipmakers. The company therefore expects sales in this segment to grow by more than 75% this year. Data centres consume enormous amounts of memory, so manufacturers such as Samsung and SK hynix are expanding production capacity. That is exactly what they need ASML’s machines for.
The AI data centre build-out is also hitting household wallets. Memory makers are prioritising lucrative data centre chips, leaving less for consumer electronics. As a result, memory prices have risen by hundreds of percent, forcing electronics makers to raise prices. Apple has therefore raised prices on MacBooks, iPads and iPhones. The new iPhone 18 Pro costs CZK 2,000 more in the Czech Republic than the previous generation, and the Pro Max as much as CZK 3,000 more. But it’s not just Apple. Electronics prices are rising across the board, and the more memory a device contains, the steeper the increase.
Strong ASML results could therefore cut both ways. For consumers, they may signal that the hunger for chips continues and electronics prices could keep rising until the market returns to balance. For shareholders, they could confirm that AI demand is not slowing. These will be among the first AI-sector results of this earnings season, and every investor in AI stocks will be watching them closely.