News and Analysis

BONDS: US government two- and three-year bond yields are now at quadruple their post global financial crisis average and well above the long-term average (see chart). Bonds are...

WORRY: Angst over the UK’s lagging economic performance and its weakening place in the global capital markets is running high. But capital markets are not economies, and UK assets...

COMPLACENT: The US government’s ‘checking account’ is approaching critical levels (see chart). A deal to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling is needed soon. It will ultimately...

RESILIENT: The US economy has dodged long standing calls for its slowdown and a recession so far. Consumers still have pandemic savings. Corporate profits been resilient. PMI's at...

A new crypto craze is driving blockchain activity While blue chip cryptoassets Bitcoin and Ethereum drift sideways as they hold onto market-leading gains, several altcoins are...

ANOMALY: S&P 500 and Europe’ Stoxx 600 seen a very low volume May so far. With Japan’s Nikkei 225 a notable exception. This has confounded market skeptics, as it has come...

Summary Market tip-toeing towards taking more risk Investors turning less defensive as rate cuts on the horizon. Cuts typically start next bull market. Stocks move ahead of...

HELP: Lower long-term US government bond yields have been a big help for equities this year. They have boosted the present-value-of-future-cashflows and pushed stock valuations...

SUPPORT: Consumption dominates the US economy, at 2/3 of GDP, and its resilience the biggest reason it’s not in recession. The good news is consumers still have significant...

HEALTHCARE: S&P 500’s second largest sector is down this year, held back by ‘big pharma’ after its large 2022 outperformance. The Inflation Reduction Act hastened pricing...