HOLIDAY SALES: Black Friday and Cyber Monday Thanksgiving weekend retail sales results are in. They were solid, a relief, but reflected covid disruptions. Stronger numbers are...

RESILIENT: Economies, consumers, companies are more resilient to each virus wave. We are heading into a fourth virus wave, regardless ‘omicrom’ variant details.  It's a position...

STRESS TEST: Equities have passed a big stress-test so far, with the recent sharp repricing of Fed interest rate hike expectations. S&P 500 is up 9% this quarter even as...

SOME HEALING: We are seeing signs of supply chains readjusting to the huge demand and dislocations seen this year. Our supply chain ‘pain’ index is down 20% from early October...

LESS UPSIDE RISK: A ‘fourth wave’ of global virus cases is underway (see chart) as we head into the northern hemisphere winter. This will dampen but not derail the economic...

RISKS: Brent crude is -8% from $86/bbl to $79 on rising virus cases and talk of a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release from US, China and others. US has 600 million bbls in...

ALL-CONQUERING: The US dollar has conquered all this year, outperforming 85% of the 30 major global currencies we track. It has been boosted by the sharp re-pricing of Fed...

SPINOFFS: Announced breakups by GE (GE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Japan’s Toshiba highlight for many the ‘death of the conglomerate’. We are not so sure. Spin-offs have not...

SOFT COMMODITIES: A 55% surge in our ‘breakfast’ cost index the past year is outpacing the commodity rally and piling cost pressures on many. This is boosting inflation, interest...

SEASONALITY: S&P 500 has rebounded 9% from October low. This begs the question if the seasonal Santa rally came early? Partly. We are near our 4,700 end year target, but with...