Did you know that Bitcoin’s worst month is September…but that it’s best month is October? The Daily Breakdown digs into BTC seasonality.
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What’s Happening?
Bitcoin has done well this year, up more than 20% so far in 2025. However, bulls may be growing a bit impatient with the recent price action. After a four-month rally, BTC fell 6.5% last month and is struggling for traction so far this month.
Historically, September has been Bitcoin’s weakest month, with an average loss of 3.2% over the past decade. It’s one of only three months with a negative average return during that span, alongside January (-0.2%) and August (-0.1%).
But October has historically flipped the script. It stands as Bitcoin’s strongest month, averaging a 22.5% gain over the past ten years. In seven of those years, Bitcoin posted returns of at least 11%, and only once — in 2018 — did it finish the month in the red. Zooming out further, Q4 tends to be Bitcoin’s best quarter.
Meanwhile, crypto ETF flows have been robust this summer. In July, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs combined for over $16.8 billion in inflows — nearly doubling their next-best monthly total. August saw a divergence: Ethereum ETFs pulled in $7.7 billion, while Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of $750 million. That shift suggests some investors may be rotating out of Bitcoin and into Ethereum, but doesn’t indicate whether that’s a long-term development.
With strong technical momentum — more on that in a minute — growing institutional adoption, and improving regulatory clarity, crypto’s long-term outlook remains constructive. While seasonal weakness may create short-term turbulence, investors may view any pullbacks as potential buying opportunities — not warning signs.
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The Setup — Bitcoin
While BTC has been chopping around after its surge in June, the $105K to $110K range has been vital over the past year. Before June, this was a key resistance zone and once Bitcoin broke out, it’s been key support. That’s healthy price action.
Provided that this area continues to hold as support, the technical structure remains constructive. If this area remains support, then bulls might look for an eventual rebound back to the $120K to $125K area. Should support fail, then BTC may dip to the $97K to $100K area and the rising 50-week moving average.
Options
For investors who can’t trade or aren’t comfortable trading cryptocurrencies outright, they can consider ETFs for BTC and ETH. On the BTC front, IBIT remains the largest ETF by assets, while also supporting options trading.
Bulls can utilize calls or call spreads to speculate on upside, while bears can use puts or puts spread to speculate on downside. In either case, investors may consider using adequate time until expiration.
For those looking to learn more about options, consider visiting the eToro Academy.
What Wall Street’s Watching
QQQ
The QQQ ETF hit another all-time high on Monday as the Nasdaq 100 continues to power higher. Chip stocks, Apple, Oracle, and Tesla helped lead the charge on the day, despite a mixed day overall in tech — with four of the Mag 7 stocks lower on the session. Check out the chart for the QQQ.
Prices for gold rallied again, jumping more than 1.5% on Monday and are higher again this morning. That firmly has gold prices in new record high territory, as the metal has rallied almost 4% in the past three days. Like gold, silver has been on the move too — now over $44 an ounce — and traders are keeping a close eye on its 2011 record high near $50. Curious investors can check out the GLD ETF and the SLV ETF for more information.
Disclaimer:
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.