- 56% anticipate market rally will continue into the new year
- Majority (78%) feel confident about their investments
- Political uncertainty and geopolitical instability seen as main threats to the rally
- Over a third (37%) of retail investors anticipate interest rates declines in the coming year
- 26% plan to invest more as interest rates decline, particularly younger investors
Wednesday 10th December 2025 – The majority (56%) of retail investors globally are optimistic that the current bull market will extend into the next year, according to the latest quarterly Retail Investor Beat from trading and investing platform eToro.
The study, which surveyed 11,000 retail investors across 13 countries, found that retail investors’ positive outlook for 2026 is also reflected in their confidence in their portfolios, with 78% expressing confidence in their investments, a percentage that remains unchanged from Q3 and the same time last year.
When asked about whether they are on track to achieve their investment goals, a majority (51%) believe they are, while 36% say it’s too early to tell.
Commenting on the data, eToro’s Global Market Strategist Lale Akoner, said: “Despite the recent market downturn, declining interest rates, robust corporate earnings and a calming of the political landscape are driving investors’ confidence in the market’s potential for 2026. Retail investors’ confidence in their portfolios also remains high, suggesting that investors are looking past short-term fears, but they also recognise that achieving long-term goals requires more time, stability and consistent market performance.”
The latest Retail Investor Beat reveals that investors see political uncertainty (43%), geopolitical instability or war (40%) and slowing economic growth or a recession (34%) as the leading external risks to the bull market in 2026.
Biggest external risks to bull market
| Political uncertainty | 43% |
| Geopolitical instability or war | 40% |
| Slowing economic growth or recession | 34% |
| Persistent or resurging inflation | 27% |
| Global supply chain disruptions or commodity shocks | 23% |
| Interest rate hikes or tighter monetary policy | 21% |
| High market valuations / asset bubbles | 21% |
| Weak corporate earnings | 16% |
Lale Akoner added: “While strong fundamentals support investors’ optimism, this year has proven that market certainty is never guaranteed. At a time of heightened market volatility, fueled by political and geopolitical instability, it has become essential for investors to remain vigilant and closely monitor potential risks.
“These risks loom large as we head into 2026 because they carry the potential to reshape policy priorities, trade relationships and the global economic outlook in ways that are difficult to predict. Retail investors understand that political outcomes can materially affect sectors, valuations and capital flows at a time when markets are assessing the durability of the current rally.”
Investors anticipate interest rate changes for 2026
A majority of investors anticipate changes in interest rates in 2026, with 37% expecting a decrease and 29% an increase. Among those who foresee a decrease, 18% predict a slight reduction of up to 0.25%, while 16% expect a moderate decrease between 0.25% and 0.75%.
Interest rates expectations for 2026
| Rates will increase dramatically (> +0.75%) | 3% |
| Rates will increase moderately (+0.25% to +0.75%) | 10% |
| Rates will increase slightly (< +0.25%) | 16% |
| Rates will remain about the same | 21% |
| Rates will decrease slightly (< -0.25%) | 18% |
| Rates will decrease moderately ( -0.25% to -0.75%) | 16% |
| Rates will decrease dramatically (> -0.75%) | 3% |
The current interest rate decline has prompted 51% of retail investors to adjust their portfolios. Of those planning further changes, 26% intend to invest more. This is particularly so for younger investors with 38% of Generation Z and 34% of millennials planning to increase their investments, compared to 12% of baby boomers and 23% of Generation X.
As interest rates decline, retail investors are planning to allocate more of their investments in the next 12 months to growth sector stocks (23%), cryptoassets (20%), cash or short-term savings (19%), dividend-yielding stocks (18%), commodities such as gold and oil (18%), and real estate and property funds (17%).
Lale Akoner commented: “With central banks now firmly in cutting mode, many investors expect room for additional reductions in 2026. The recent moves have already encouraged a more active approach, particularly among younger investors, who see this as an opportunity to rebuild and reposition for long-term wealth creation.
“As rates decline, investors are showing interest in a blend of growth opportunities and defensive assets, reflecting a pragmatic balance between near-term caution and long-term ambition.”
ENDS
Notes to editors
About this report
The latest Retail Investor Beat was based on a survey of 11,000 retail investors across 13 countries and 3 continents. The following countries had 1,000 respondents: UK, US, Germany, France, Australia, Singapore, Italy and Spain. The following countries had 600 respondents: Netherlands, Denmark, Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic.
The survey was conducted from October 30 – 13 November 2025 and carried out by research company Opinium. Retail investors were defined as self-directed or advised and had to hold at least one investment product including shares, bonds, funds, investment ISAs or equivalent. They did not need to be eToro users.
The figures and results presented in this survey are based on the responses of participants at the time the survey was conducted. They reflect responders’ opinions, views and perceptions and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a guarantee of future performance. Percentages and results may not be representative of the broader population and are subject to change as market conditions and sentiment evolve.
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