This week, earnings season officially gets underway on Wall Street. In the coming days, the first few dozen companies from the S&P 500 index will be reporting results. Banks are typically first. Their results can reveal important information for investors — not just about the banking sector, but about the direction of the broader economy. This season, special attention is being paid to private credit, the private financing sector that has been facing problems in recent months. So what will the results of the biggest banks show us?
Goldman Sachs Opens with a Record Performance
On Monday, Goldman Sachs, the fifth-largest bank in the US and one of the most influential investment banks in the world, was first to report. Goldman kicked off earnings season with a record performance in equity trading. The volatility tied to the Iran conflict paradoxically brought banks like Goldman an extraordinary surge in client activity. Private markets are also accelerating. M&A advisory fees jumped 89 percent year-over-year, signaling a revival in deal-making on Wall Street.
On Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup report. For JPMorgan, the largest US bank, the market will be watching primarily the 2026 outlook and management commentary. Renowned CEO Jamie Dimon has long been warning about risks building in the banking sector, including in private credit. Citigroup is in the middle of a major restructuring, and analysts paradoxically expect the fastest earnings growth of the Tuesday trio — over 34 percent year-over-year. The key question will be whether the transformation is proceeding on track.
On Wednesday, it’s Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. BofA is benefiting from the high-rate environment and analysts expect continued growth in net interest income. Morgan Stanley is being driven by its strong wealth management franchise and the potential revival of the IPO market.
Private Credit: Three Trillion Dollars Under Pressure
Private credit is a theme that will run throughout the entire earnings season. It’s a three-trillion-dollar sector of non-bank financing, where private funds lend directly to companies — typically those that traditional banks don’t serve well. The sector grew for decades without major problems, but the end of last year brought the first serious cracks.
Jamie Dimon warned at the time about “cockroaches” — where you see one, there are usually more. This March, the situation escalated as major funds Apollo, Ares and Blue Owl restricted investor withdrawals after significantly exceeding available liquidity. Concerns stem from the fact that approximately 26 percent of loans flow to software companies, which are under significant pressure from the AI revolution. This week’s bank results will show whether some of them have “cockroaches at home.”
The Fed’s Hands Are Tied
The US economy is currently facing a complex situation. While just two months ago the market expected gradual interest rate cuts due to a weakening labor market, inflationary pressure from the oil shock has pushed those expectations all the way out to October 2027. The year-over-year US inflation rate jumped to 3.3 percent in March 2026 — the highest level since May 2024, and a sharp increase from the 2.4 percent recorded in both February and January. This ties the central bank’s hands at a time when the labor market is deteriorating and the government is calling for rate cuts.
The banks’ market insight will therefore provide very important information for investors, who are navigating an unpredictable situation following the collapse of peace negotiations over the weekend and renewed uncertainty over the fate of the Strait of Hormuz.
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